So, is this "recession' over?

[cdnsoldier]

What do you guys think? Been listening to a BMO economist and he says by next spring we will be back "in prosperity". I don't buy it because many guys still going outof business. I mean GM is govt. owned and how well can that go? Then again our govt. did a good job with CN rail so who knows?


What do you guys think? You guys feeling this downturn or is it "What recession?" type deal?

[Tiamat]

I think it's going to get worst and they are lying to us. As they've always done.

[cdnsoldier]

I think it's going to get worst and they are lying to us. As they've always done.

That's my feeling. I think it's a pyramid scheme. Take money from here to "prop" over this guy but then factors come in that say otherwise. People spendng more, job rate pretty steady, housing healthy in Toronto and the start of more bidding wars again etc.

[manfreakca]

hell no,and it will never be the same either,get used to this life

[Seth]

The whole recession is due to a question of trust towards the economy itself. As soon as people think the recession is over, it will be.

[Bowlcut]

AHAHAHA **** no.
Let me guess this was the same BMO economist that there was no recession in sight? Or like Bernanke and that sub-prime would only account for 100billion in losses and would be limited?


There can be minor recoveries or bear market rallies, but this recession has a long way to come, especially for the USA. Ontario and Quebec will be the last ones to leave the recession in Canada because they are reliant upon US export markets. Look to see Sask, AB, BC, and Man to leave first because they have commodities that will be in huge demand.

This recession is partially about trust, but when the trust runs out in the USA dollar s the world's reserve currency expect things to get really shitty south of the border.

As a side note people spending really has no relevance to how the economy is doing unless production is being increased, or at least some form of good being generated by the spenders. Remember too that jobless rates are always cooked by the government and workers who have given up searching for employment (classified as discouraged workers) are not included in the unemployment rate.

[marino]

I believe that the worst is yet to come unemployment is rising and the US govt is running the presses 24/7 printing money they cannot back with holdings. Watch the world market China is demanding their gold holdings back from the US and they cant pay up its not there, furthermore the saudi nations want to get paid now in euros for oil not american currency. Why do you think our dollar is rising so fast the US is sinking and the new world powers are emerging like India and China. Time will tell..... just my opinion

[guest]

a friend at the bank said they are now seeing more welfare checks than ever before. i wonder if EI is such a hassle for such little pay that people are just going on welfare?

[spankmonkey]

Define recession. What is it exactly so we can talk about the same thing. I have heard, read and listened too many theories about what is happening and not one provided the same basis of what a recssion is defined as. Could we agree on what that is and then talk about when we think it will end?

[cdnsoldier]

Define recession. What is it exactly so we can talk about the same thing. I have heard, read and listened too many theories about what is happening and not one provided the same basis of what a recssion is defined as. Could we agree on what that is and then talk about when we think it will end?


There are a million definitions and we could debate til we die what a recession means.

I am basically asking; Are you hurting? Are you struggling more so than you were two years ago?

To be honest I never felt this 'recession' and everyone around me especially those who own business have been doing better , not worse. That includes landscapers, fencers etc. They are booked solid until Oct. Here in Toronto I don't know one person who has been laid off (know personallythat is). In fact most peole I know are upgrading houses, cars etc. Andthese are working people not mega millinaire types.

For me it's been "what recession". I just don't se it. Never have to be honest. Maybe it hasn't caught up yet in toronto.

[spankmonkey]

There are a million definitions and we could debate til we die what a recession means.

I am basically asking; Are you hurting? Are you struggling more so than you were two years ago?

To be honest I never felt this 'recession' and everyone around me especially those who own business have been doing better , not worse. That includes landscapers, fencers etc. They are booked solid until Oct. Here in Toronto I don't know one person who has been laid off (know personallythat is). In fact most peole I know are upgrading houses, cars etc. Andthese are working people not mega millinaire types.

For me it's been "what recession". I just don't se it. Never have to be honest. Maybe it hasn't caught up yet in toronto.

In a not-so-elliquent way, I guess this is what I was elluding to. I know of noone who is "sufering" and my company and many others are continually expanding their market share.

[Kronis]

No, it's just getting going. Canada predicted a $50Billion budget deficit next year.

[waderow]

I am so busy I dont know what to do any more. I am seeing no recession at all.

[cog]

Free trade could be threatened if things deteriorate further south of the border.That might be a good thing.

[Bowlcut]

Free trade could be threatened if things deteriorate further south of the border.That might be a good thing.

How so?
So consumers who have seen pay reductions can pay more for inferior goods?

[Ongeau]

The whole recession is due to a question of trust towards the economy itself. As soon as people think the recession is over, it will be.

I can't believe it somebody else who finally gets it. Well Said Sir!

PEOPLE. this doesn't end until you say it does.

[boosting350z]

im from the states (florida) and almost everyone i know from there, which is allot of people are suffering from the economy :mad: hopefully it turns around soon. i started noticing it 3 years ago and its getting worst and worst each year. i been in vancouver for about a year now, and from the looks of it and listening to busness owners talk, its like deja vu from when i was in florida 4 years ago. i think its gonna get allot worst here soon.

[BAM]

I can't believe it somebody else who finally gets it. Well Said Sir!

PEOPLE. this doesn't end until you say it does.

lol..

"Theres no place like home 'click click' theres no place like home"

Hmmm, I think these ruby slippers are bunk.

[manfreakca]

over 5 million on unemployment in the states wat happen when the benfits run out??then wat??

[cog]

How so?
So consumers who have seen pay reductions can pay more for inferior goods?


A rather pessimistic view.Chinese goods are high quality?I would prefer a North American block,**** trying to prop up asia.America needs to buy more of their own goods,what exactly are they turning into?

[kingofthegeeks]

A rather pessimistic view.Chinese goods are high quality?I would prefer a North American block,**** trying to prop up asia.America needs to buy more of their own goods,what exactly are they turning into?


Protectionism is not the solution, North America is way to reliant on export for that to help, in fact if anything it would hurt us terribly because if we stop buying from them, they stop buying from us!

[Bowlcut]

A rather pessimistic view.Chinese goods are high quality?I would prefer a North American block,**** trying to prop up asia.America needs to buy more of their own goods,what exactly are they turning into?

What about German or Japanese autos?
You need to realize they we are not propping up Asia. LOL. Who do you think has been buying US treasury debt for the last decade?

The reason America doesn't buy any of its own goods is because it doesn't produce anything anymore. The capital stock of the USA was depleted over the past decade in order to finance consumption and investments into high order goods like housing.

[cdnsoldier]

lol..

"Theres no place like home 'click click' theres no place like home"

Hmmm, I think these ruby slippers are bunk.


Too bad unemployemnt went up again. 8.4%. That can't be a good sign.

[cog]

What about German or Japanese autos?
You need to realize they we are not propping up Asia. LOL. Who do you think has been buying US treasury debt for the last decade?

The reason America doesn't buy any of its own goods is because it doesn't produce anything anymore. The capital stock of the USA was depleted over the past decade in order to finance consumption and investments into high order goods like housing.

America must produce goods to survive.Britain doesn't produce much either.They lend money.What do you feel is the future of these countries?

[BAM]

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[Bowlcut]

America must produce goods to survive.Britain doesn't produce much either.They lend money.What do you feel is the future of these countries?

Britain is pretty much ****ed too, but unlike the USA they have few natural resources. They are going to run out of gas and oil in the North Sea within a few decades, and are going to start importing energy within the next few years. The UK has no savings to lend and their financial institutions are all insolvent as RBS, Northern Rock, etc, are all under state control. London was the main economic driver but with the end of this credit bubble the finance jobs are disappearing faster than doughnuts in a police station.

[guest]

dunno how much of an indicator this is but....i'm building right now and materials are cheaper on some items than they have been in 10yrs. trades are looking for work, they are seeking out and calling me! a year ago you'd be lucky to get a call back. the building suppliers are stopping by my job site, just to see if i need anything (assuring me they will give me a better deal than one another). my quotes have been extremely excellent on everything. plus the bank rates are still low as ****. talking to the rental guys last week about how things are going and they said nothing is happening with construction for them but there is some home owner renos happening.

this makes me think people are hungry.

[cdnsoldier]

dunno how much of an indicator this is but....i'm building right now and materials are cheaper on some items than they have been in 10yrs. trades are looking for work, they are seeking out and calling me! a year ago you'd be lucky to get a call back. the building suppliers are stopping by my job site, just to see if i need anything (assuring me they will give me a better deal than one another). my quotes have been extremely excellent on everything. plus the bank rates are still low as ****. talking to the rental guys last week about how things are going and they said nothing is happening with construction for them but there is some home owner renos happening.

this makes me think people are hungry.


Those are actually good indicators that things aren't goin well. Nice post. It's insight lik ethis from people working with these trades that tell the real story.

[cog]

People are actually happy on the sites...many did sfa all winter.Anyhoo,whether you have a free trade agreement or not,Americans or any other group can decide to buy locally for any excuse they want.The bottom line is that business cannot expect to make great bucks selling homes and autos and other big ticket items forever while the "real" sector of the economy withers away because Walmart sells only the absolute cheapest available goods from countries where people live in unheated substandard housing and no heed is paid to the enviroment whatsoever.....it's a great plan built on a house of cards....to allow capital to go wherever it can to make the most money.