Alberta is going to be in trouble

[wmk]

Last year royalties in oil for each barrel brought in $14.00. Today, we are sitting at $0.48 for each barrel. It costs us more to produce one barrel at the tar sands than what it is selling for. The provincial government also over committed on spending and we have gone from having billions in a surplus to running deficit. Getting $0.48 is going to make the debt grow large as the world currently has the largest stockpile/storage of oil that it has seen because the demand of oil has gone down so much due to the economic meltdown.

Be careful with your jobs and money, because we are still sitting in the CALM before the storm.

WMK

[spitfire]

I stopped spending an any luxuries now. No more joy rides, no more restaurants, etc.

Time to bunker down before the shit hits the fan. Many have been warning that it's going to get real bad and this time, I really believe it.

Lot's of jobs will be lost (and not gotten back). Save your money people. You're going to need it.

[Bowlcut]

The royalty rate that you quote is only when oil is at a relatively low price, and it goes higher when oil tops $100.

In reality Alberta would be fine if Stelmach didn't have the highest per capital spending in Canada, at $10,500 per person. Ontario is at $6700 in comparison.

Alberta is also spending 780% more in this budget year than they did in 2002-2003 on capital spending. Fact is that the conservatives have been anything but conservative.

[Danger]

You realize if the Government doesent spend the provice will just completely fall apart due to our massive infrastructed debt caused by the Klein years right? I swear the roads in Edmonton are probably worse than Baghdad.

Also Oil is a finite resourse and since Canada is a politically stable democracy unlike most Oil rich nations Alberta is very well positioned for anyone looking to invest in this resource which is what rich people tend to do in down markets, especially with resources like oil/gold ect...

[wolverine]

This shit happened before, and it will happen again folks, the market is going to rebound, starting to see a trend here? give it a few months and all should be fine, we are going into hurricane season you know!!!

[wmk]

This shit happened before, and it will happen again folks, the market is going to rebound, starting to see a trend here? give it a few months and all should be fine, we are going into hurricane season you know!!!

This one is different... we never as a society had so much debt and the globalist who want to make a world government and world banking system need to collapse the old first. Unfortunately, we cannot keep consuming what we are because the earth is dyeing. We have record extinctions of species currently going on, from 1900 to 2000, population exploded from 1 billion to 6.5 billion, the ocean feeds over 3 billion people a day, and it is estimated that 85% of ocean life has been fished in the last 100 years, leaving a mere 15% left, coral reefs are dyeing on a mass scale, and humans continue to consume and consume. We are entering into a shift. Check out the 10 new commandments of the New World Order in the attached picture. It is known as the Georgia Guide Stones.

I do not agree with the 10 new commandments or with the depopulation agenda as it was the globalist who created this consumeristic life -style of enslavement, which becomes or destruction. The Earth has more than enough to take care of 50 billion people if we did things properly.

All I am saying is this economic collapse is planned for an agenda of control, depopulation and restructuring... this is why this is much different than other economic downfalls.

[ironwill]

im an optimist, sometimes to the point of being sickening, and wonder if i have any worries...lolol...but, i believe we are all in trouble folks...
I yrs....
I feel it will rebound with time, but this time, its not just oil, or forestry, or automotive, or health care , or major war spending, or drought or major stock market collapse.....It is all of the above...its the financial perfect storm.....
BUT, the ones left standing, and utilizing common sense and can remain cash positive and have some cake to invest in about 18 months to 24 months, My personal prediction....will be able to invest and see some great gains...this is going to be a hauge correction for the 21st century....but will be great in he coming yrs....buy 3 houses in 2 yrs for the price of 1 today....lol...maybe not quite, but the industrial collapse is going to make the real-estate collapse look like a blip...

[wmk]

im an optimist, sometimes to the point of being sickening, and wonder if i have any worries...lolol...but, i believe we are all in trouble folks...
I yrs....
I feel it will rebound with time, but this time, its not just oil, or forestry, or automotive, or health care , or major war spending, or drought or major stock market collapse.....It is all of the above...its the financial perfect storm.....
BUT, the ones left standing, and utilizing common sense and can remain cash positive and have some cake to invest in about 18 months to 24 months, My personal prediction....will be able to invest and see some great gains...this is going to be a hauge correction for the 21st century....but will be great in he coming yrs....buy 3 houses in 2 yrs for the price of 1 today....lol...maybe not quite, but the industrial collapse is going to make the real-estate collapse look like a blip...


I agree with what you said, but there maybe one factor that makes it even worse... hyperinflation. It has happened in many other countries such as Argentina in the year 2000.

[Danger]

Most of the problems you have brought up arent really big Issues in a country like Canada, we unlike most other nations could become completely self sufficient if we decided to. In fact we run a mostly export economy as it is so its not like we require much from the rest of the world, we just buy from them because the price is cheaper than paying a Canadian to do the work which is again GOOD for us since it keeps our resources here.

Realize that almost every country on earth is envious of our INSANE resourse wealth, we also have some of the best farmland in the world... we also control a rediculous amount of the worlds fresh water supply and we are infact underpopulated as far as how much land we have.... you seem to think we live in the USA/China or something.

[ironwill]

Most of the problems you have brought up arent really big Issues in a country like Canada, we unlike most other nations could become completely self sufficient if we decided to. In fact we run a mostly export economy as it is so its not like we require much from the rest of the world, we just buy from them because the price is cheaper than paying a Canadian to do the work which is again GOOD for us since it keeps our resources here.

Realize that almost every country on earth is envious of our INSANE resourse wealth, we also have some of the best farmland in the world... we also control a rediculous amount of the worlds fresh water supply and we are infact underpopulated as far as how much land we have.... you seem to think we live in the USA/China or something.
again at the risk of being a pessimist....you sound like we are a ... powerful nation or something...lol...what are we gonna do, jump on our love boat and protect our shores from the likes of america, asia, india etc if they want what we have...not in a million yrs....but
now we are going wayyyyy out there, if it gets to that then we wont be communicating on here sharing our theories of doom and gloom....its real folks, not the extremes we are blabbing about, but the rest is real...

[Danger]

Its funny how the people that most underestimate Canada are usally Canadians lol, we actually have a pretty impressive history when it comes to war. I dont think many people realize that during WW2 we went from being British shock troops to the Country they took their tactics and strategy from, of course we arent a military superpower but we dont exactly need to be considering our relationship with the USA/UK.

Im not saying things wont get bad I am just saying we are better off than almost any other Nation if things do get really bad.

[wolverine]

I was simply talking about the Oil patch folks, but now that you put it that way, ya we could be ****ed, we are our own demise, no doubt!!!

[ironwill]

Its funny how the people that most underestimate Canada are usally Canadians lol, we actually have a pretty impressive history when it comes to war. I dont think many people realize that during WW2 we went from being British shock troops to the Country they took their tactics and strategy from, of course we arent a military superpower but we dont exactly need to be considering our relationship with the USA/UK.

Im not saying things wont get bad I am just saying we are better off than almost any other Nation if things do get really bad.

i hear what you are sayin my man....but in reality if things were to get that bad we would be annihilated....
we were tough when a 303 british and a knife on the end were the weapons of mass destruction.....yes we had a tonne of heart and my forefathers of both parents fought in these wars, and im a proud canadian....
but if the forces that be want my land and my water....me and my 303 arent gonna be around long to fight for it...its a much different world now my friend..war is no longer won by heart and a little planning....its won by brute force and chemicals and weaponery and terrorism, something that us passive canadians just dont know much about...but if it were to come down to a beerdrinking contest, we would whip ass, maybe even arm wrestling....but thats it...

[KingKong]

Let the Oil Patch suffer... **** em. For much too long, uneducated people were working in positions in which they are not qualified for, making too much $$ and doing too little. Oil patch workers drove up housing prices with riduculous spending, Meanwhile you'd have teachers, small businees owners, firefighters, etc. who were ****ed cause they could not afford to even purchase a house. Well, maybe now the tables have turned and the rig pigs aren't working... I don't feel bad for them, they could have saved their money instead of buying 1/2 million dollar homes, and 50k trucks. They could have saved for an education that would guarentee a secure, but more modest, future so I don't feel bad for most of the rig workers I know anyways. They pissed it away on blow and new trucks.... so yeah, **** em.

[OrangePeel]

Let the Oil Patch suffer... **** em. For much too long, uneducated people were working in positions in which they are not qualified for, making too much $$ and doing too little. Oil patch workers drove up housing prices with riduculous spending, Meanwhile you'd have teachers, small businees owners, firefighters, etc. who were ****ed cause they could not afford to even purchase a house. Well, maybe now the tables have turned and the rig pigs aren't working... I don't feel bad for them, they could have saved their money instead of buying 1/2 million dollar homes, and 50k trucks. They could have saved for an education that would guarentee a secure, but more modest, future so I don't feel bad for most of the rig workers I know anyways. They pissed it away on blow and new trucks.... so yeah, **** em.

F@#* you. Making too much and doing to little??? I worked my ****ing knuckles to the bone for five years to get to where I am, and deserve it. We're all not "rig pigs" you judgemental ****. Give me a break that because I had the balls to risk life and limb for the cash you are now suffering. I never bought the $70,000 truck or the $400,000 house like all the idiots did. I live moderately, and can survive this slowdown. Your whole statement sounds like you have something against young guys working the oilfield to keep their smack habits...not everyone is an idiot, I actually met ALOT of educated people working the rigs just for the same reasons as me...CASH. I think we need to look alot deeper for a DECENT scapegoat, not your poor attempt.
Don't be jealous because you think "rig pigs" got it easy.

Opeel

[ironwill]

Let the Oil Patch suffer... **** em. For much too long, uneducated people were working in positions in which they are not qualified for, making too much $$ and doing too little. Oil patch workers drove up housing prices with riduculous spending, Meanwhile you'd have teachers, small businees owners, firefighters, etc. who were ****ed cause they could not afford to even purchase a house. Well, maybe now the tables have turned and the rig pigs aren't working... I don't feel bad for them, they could have saved their money instead of buying 1/2 million dollar homes, and 50k trucks. They could have saved for an education that would guarentee a secure, but more modest, future so I don't feel bad for most of the rig workers I know anyways. They pissed it away on blow and new trucks.... so yeah, **** em.

this is very cute.....lolol.....the rig pigs also trained with osama bin laden and buy all their blow in the name of allah...they also are responsible for the auto collapse in ontario, because they stopped buying trucks and extras...
anyways.......

[Bowlcut]

Like any boom there are fools who make poor decisions with their money and suffer the consequences, but guess what? That is a great thing because now responsible people will be able to buy up cheap trucks, homes, etc from those in a distressed state.

[OrangePeel]

Like any boom there are fools who make poor decisions with their money and suffer the consequences, but guess what? That is a great thing because now responsible people will be able to buy up cheap trucks, homes, etc from those in a distressed state.

Exactly. Just bought a quad(I'm laid off but was smart-savings&working local under the table.) from a bud who was a "spender" as I call them. Brand new Honda with 15hrs on it- $3000.:puff

Opeel

[Danger]

Yeah I feel really bad for the people who bought houses in '07... buddy bought an 802sq/ft single bedroom house in the ghetto for $290,000.00 and its now worth I bet $200,000.00 if that and he's already but in like $20k in repairs like weeping tile and replacing the lead water service lol.

[wmk]

I sold my house in April 2008 as I saw what was coming. My house's assessed value from the city was 420,000 at the time. Same area in Calgary today has homes selling for 325,000 to 380,000. I figure that my particular house dropped about 70 to 80k in a 1 year time period.

[waderow]

price of oil is climbing.

there are reliable rumors of upgraders getting funding for construction

unions have been humbled

provincial govt has spent tons...yes, and this was a brilliant move to bolster economy in the face of a recession, as we all know it will rebound

house sales market is growing



Where I am.... there is nothing but growth and optimism.

[waderow]

I sold my house in April 2008 as I saw what was coming. My house's assessed value from the city was 420,000 at the time. Same area in Calgary today has homes selling for 325,000 to 380,000. I figure that my particular house dropped about 70 to 80k in a 1 year time period.

7-10 years ago it was a 150-200k home

[manfreakca]

sask is the place nw

[waderow]

sask is hardcore for growth, but never count out alberta. The two provinces will be the hub for the next couple decades

[Danger]

Its weird, so many of the kids I grew up with in Alberta are like me born in Alberta but their parents are from Sask.

And I swear Saskatoon and Edmonton are almost identical...

[Bowlcut]

The royalties scheme really ****ed over small and mid cap companies, but Alberta still has a far more favorable tax system that promotes more incentive.

If Stelmach had any clue he would drive his ass back to Lamont County and stay there.

[OrangePeel]

Its weird, so many of the kids I grew up with in Alberta are like me born in Alberta but their parents are from Sask.

And I swear Saskatoon and Edmonton are almost identical...

I hope not, cause if thats true then Saskatoon is sliding....I think that Edmonton is a dirty city IMO.

Opeel

[ironwill]

price of oil is climbing.

there are reliable rumors of upgraders getting funding for construction

unions have been humbled

provincial govt has spent tons...yes, and this was a brilliant move to bolster economy in the face of a recession, as we all know it will rebound

house sales market is growing



Where I am.... there is nothing but growth and optimism.

you are a fellow optimist...good to see....green when i can.....
i agree with all except the housing market....and some unions...not all.....
other than that....Im hoping for the best...

[ironwill]

I sold my house in April 2008 as I saw what was coming. My house's assessed value from the city was 420,000 at the time. Same area in Calgary today has homes selling for 325,000 to 380,000. I figure that my particular house dropped about 70 to 80k in a 1 year time period.
CC and i are looking to buy another home.....It is crazy some of the great deals going on, BUT they are predicting another 10 percent minimum loss in real-estate still to come in AB, so we are in a conundrum....probably wait until fall, the banks are giving interest away basically, and with the drop in prices, should make for a nice lil profit in a few yrs time...
Acreages are dropping big time in Edmonton - Calgary areas as well..

[wmk]

CC and i are looking to buy another home.....It is crazy some of the great deals going on, BUT they are predicting another 10 percent minimum loss in real-estate still to come in AB, so we are in a conundrum....probably wait until fall, the banks are giving interest away basically, and with the drop in prices, should make for a nice lil profit in a few yrs time...
Acreages are dropping big time in Edmonton - Calgary areas as well..

I would wait until at least November.... think about it, they are now closing 245 GM dealerships in Canada alone by some time in 2010, Chrysler is closing a bunch of dealerships and filed chapter 11, and it is something like 1 out of 4 jobs in Canada are related to the auto sector. In 2010 a lot will unfold including drastic declines in housing. This is just the start my friend.

[Bowlcut]

I would wait until at least November.... think about it, they are now closing 245 GM dealerships in Canada alone by some time in 2010, Chrysler is closing a bunch of dealerships and filed chapter 11, and it is something like 1 out of 4 jobs in Canada are related to the auto sector. In 2010 a lot will unfold including drastic declines in housing. This is just the start my friend.

Depends on where oil is at summer's end. Crude inventories unexpectedly dropped last month in the USA so end of August will be giving us a good indicator.

Long term I am very bullish on oil, but at the present it depends on each person's circumstances.
All I know is that I wouldn't want to have a variable rate for anything longer than 5 years because interest rates are going much higher. As bad as the 1980's? Not too sure about that but the Bank of Canada is erroneously committed to a 2% target level of inflation so if inflation is 5% expect them to raise interest rates.

Uh. Don't get me started on central banks.

[ironwill]

and the plot thickens....they just announced a major project starting soon...1000s of jobs etc....big optimism now...oil on the rise and predicted to rise more...we are planning to wait for a bit more just to be sure.....gdamn it.....

[wmk]

Economy is still going to fail if we like it or not. Russia just dumped the US dollar a few weeks ago. Once the US totally fails, which it will, then the real shit will hit the fan due to the domino effect. It will get better eventually and another nation will become the new US, but there will be a lot of pain and hardship for a lot of people. We are not even close to the bottom yet and don't fall for all the false optimism.