Predictions for the Mr. Olympia 2014!

[Primal]

Was recently talking to a fellow gym go-er who is going to the Olympia this year, and it got me thinking about the line up for the 50th. I think the great thing about bodybuilding is that there are so many differences, opinions and hopes of every individual that it is easy to get hyped about a bodybuilder or the show even with little to no pictures or progress of the bodybuilder shown. In this case, the 'what if' game is a lot more suspenseful and interesting! Not to mention that everyone has their hopefuls! Haha, I remember last year when people where getting so pumped about how "if Jay comes in shredded to the bone he'll give Phil and Kai a run for their money!"

With all of this being said, I'm curious as to who you think will take which place in this year's Olympia! I haven't seen many pictures at all of Phil, I think he stopped posting pictures of himself in his condition like 2 months ago or maybe even more (at least on his instagram). People are really quick to say that he will take this years Olympia again, what do you guys think about this? The last pictures I think I saw of Kai where ones posted by his trainer 6 weeks out. He looked pretty lean but the pictures where bad to say the least. Haha, he wears so much clothes all the time when he's training it's pretty hard to see what his physique looks like... ever. Lots of people also riding the Big Ramy bandwagon now, they say in a year or two he is going to rival Phil Heath? Really want to hear your guys thoughts on this, tons of people think he will make top 5 this year which would be pretty cool!

Any thoughts on Dennis Wolf, Dexter Jackson or anybody else? I've got my own list of the top 10 but I really want to hear all yours first! 18 days out as of writing this!

-Primal

[cog]

Hopefully Heath does not win again,his abs were sub par.Wolf has the right physique IMO .Kai is impressive but that waist...

[Primal]

You don't like Heath just because of his abs? I thought he looked really good last year all around but maybe that was just because Kai came in off (in my opinion). Wolf looked insane and I think he worked with the crowd really well which gave him a lot of hopefuls for him this year. I thought it was more about Kai's gut to be honest cog... You can't really do much about the waist because it is genetic, right?

-Primal

[Hosehead]

I hope Kai never wins. IMO he is a disgrace to pro bodybuilding and there are far more aesthetic builds out there. I doubt that he'd win even IF he had the best build up there. The powers that be won't let it happen. He ****ed grapefruits for Christ sake ! The dancing ! The outfits ! The ****ing hair ! Heath beats him easily. Wolf has those high lat inserts but he's great in overy other way. Dexter could easily win. Freeman is flawless. IF Victor could ever nail his conditioning I think he'd win. IMO he's got the best genetics of anyone. I wish Branch Warren would retire. His arms, particularly his forearms, are so far behind the rest of his body that he doesn't belong on stage with the other names I've mentioned. Heath will win.

[cog]

You don't like Heath just because of his abs? I thought he looked really good last year all around but maybe that was just because Kai came in off (in my opinion). Wolf looked insane and I think he worked with the crowd really well which gave him a lot of hopefuls for him this year. I thought it was more about Kai's gut to be honest cog... You can't really do much about the waist because it is genetic, right?

-Primal
Just because of his abs?No.IMO too much is made of low lats,kai has low lats and he looks very blocky,I have avoided looking at the off stage antics Hosehead,not sure I would want to look.A near perfect waistline should count for more,look at Dexters waist.Something seriously wrong with Branch's upper body ......

[TT Eric]

I hope Kai never wins. IMO he is a disgrace to pro bodybuilding and there are far more aesthetic builds out there. I doubt that he'd win even IF he had the best build up there. The powers that be won't let it happen. He ****ed grapefruits for Christ sake ! The dancing ! The outfits ! The ****ing hair !

LOL You forgot the nipples that look like baby dicks!!

Eric

[Primal]

I hope Kai never wins. IMO he is a disgrace to pro bodybuilding and there are far more aesthetic builds out there. I doubt that he'd win even IF he had the best build up there. The powers that be won't let it happen. He ****ed grapefruits for Christ sake ! The dancing ! The outfits ! The ****ing hair ! Heath beats him easily. Wolf has those high lat inserts but he's great in overy other way. Dexter could easily win. Freeman is flawless. IF Victor could ever nail his conditioning I think he'd win. IMO he's got the best genetics of anyone. I wish Branch Warren would retire. His arms, particularly his forearms, are so far behind the rest of his body that he doesn't belong on stage with the other names I've mentioned. Heath will win.


I have to agree Hosehead, even if Kai had the best physique on stage I think his past actions would still override the fact. The hair and costumes are a personal thing and although they might look a bit odd sometimes it's nothing compared to him and the grapefruit. Also, Kai has really lagging traps in my opinion and his back doesn't have any definition. Like cog said, it's just a block. Personally to me, I don't like that look. Heath beats him easily in the back. I saw pictures of Martinez before he went to jail and wow... Plenty of people were saying he was an uncrowned Olympia and I can't help but agree. After seeing him in Generation Iron I can't help but feel bad for him, he's had it pretty tough so I'm rooting for him a lot.

Haven't seen too much of Branch at all. Never was one of my favourite physiques. Thoughts on Shawn Rhoden? I think he has the perfect physique in my opinion... What about Ramy? Any of you guys like him?

-Primal

[steve_d]

I had a copy of muscle insider magazine thrown in from supplements I ordered recently. There was a predictions section, with odds. They gave phil 1:1 odds. IE - 50/50 chance for him vs. anyone else. I think Phil has more like an 80% chance. There isn't a whole lot of people who could take him out. Usually these guys don't improve drastically enough. It's not like kai was off and needs to come in sharp to have a chance. He's already at what I consider his best so there isn't the element of surprise that can happen there. Honestly, the only one that has a chance is big ramy. It's a guy like that that could all of a sudden come on WAY WAY WAY sharper and then shock everyone. No one else can improve enough to take over Phil (assuming phil is equal or even better then last year).

EX. Branch at his best can never win. Dexter at his best already won, and while the rumors are that he put on 5-6 pounds on his frame, I have a hard time believing that he can change drastically enough in his mid 40s. You never know though, and honestly it is what I want to see the most. He would be my hope for a win - but like I said, I doubt it can happen. He'll be top 5 though if he has typical dexter condition.

The odds were something like 2:1 for Kai (ie 33% chance). I was shocked to see shawn rhoden at 15:1. there were others too, like wolf, and branch, juan, but they had shitty odds like 25:1 or 50:1.

In any case, my odds go like this:

80% chance for phil.
10% chance for kai.
9% chance split between dexter, wolf, rhoden
1% Ramy. But if Ramy wins, consider him the new man.

If anyone else wins, it will continue to be anyones game for years to come.

[cog]

Kai with perfect condition is simply more spectacular standing next to Phil.Perfect condition and Kai wins.

[Praetorian]

I see a two man show...depends on what the judges want...if both come in top shape its either Phil or Ramy. Kai is the Rich Gaspari of the 2000's...hell always be second or worse but never win...he has too many weaknesses compared to Phil or Ramy.

P

[Primal]

Kai with perfect condition is simply more spectacular standing next to Phil.Perfect condition and Kai wins.

Ah ok! What did you think about Kai in 2012 then cog? Arguably his closest to having the title, if I remember correctly I think he was only 1 point away and it was a close battle between the two.

Prae, what do you think separates Ramy from the rest of the pack? What weaknesses can you see on Kai that Ramy and Phil can easily beat him out?

-Primal

[steve_d]

Kai just doesn't have the aesthetics. As others have mentioned, his shape doesn't look pleasing. It's not his conditioning. If he and phil are in great condition, phil wins. If phil is slightly off, he still wins. Big Ramy is the only person who has a chance - however big ramy will be way off and come out of the top 3 most likely. This is why I said there is only one person who has a chance to beat phil, and that's ramy. But Ramy will likely fall short conditioning wise.

Phil and Ramy just look more human (if that makes sense?). Round muscle bellies, etc. With Phil being at his best, he will never lose until Ramy unleashes his potential to then be the best. In all likelihood Phil will not lose this year or any year to anyone but Ramy when he comes fully equipped for battle. Everyone else can be fully equipped, but still lose.

[Praetorian]

Ah ok! What did you think about Kai in 2012 then cog? Arguably his closest to having the title, if I remember correctly I think he was only 1 point away and it was a close battle between the two.

Prae, what do you think separates Ramy from the rest of the pack? What weaknesses can you see on Kai that Ramy and Phil can easily beat him out?

-Primal

Ramy will win when h brings freaky conditioning to the stage...ie shredded, full, dry, and hard as nails...until then its all Phil.

Ramy has the goods to do it but the question is will he go far enough down that road.

P

[cog]

Kai just doesn't have the aesthetics. As others have mentioned, his shape doesn't look pleasing. It's not his conditioning. If he and phil are in great condition, phil wins. If phil is slightly off, he still wins. Big Ramy is the only person who has a chance - however big ramy will be way off and come out of the top 3 most likely. This is why I said there is only one person who has a chance to beat phil, and that's ramy. But Ramy will likely fall short conditioning wise.

Phil and Ramy just look more human (if that makes sense?). Round muscle bellies, etc. With Phil being at his best, he will never lose until Ramy unleashes his potential to then be the best. In all likelihood Phil will not lose this year or any year to anyone but Ramy when he comes fully equipped for battle. Everyone else can be fully equipped, but still lose.
Phil reminds me of Shawn Ray at times,near perfect....but too nice.People still want a freak show... The presence Wolf projects when he begins his routine, the hardness,same with Kai.... Short clavicles and not looking hard enough ...and the lower abdomen last year are reasons I don't think Phil should repeat,but you being a judge might see things differently.

[Primal]

Kai just doesn't have the aesthetics. As others have mentioned, his shape doesn't look pleasing. It's not his conditioning. If he and phil are in great condition, phil wins. If phil is slightly off, he still wins. Big Ramy is the only person who has a chance - however big ramy will be way off and come out of the top 3 most likely. This is why I said there is only one person who has a chance to beat phil, and that's ramy. But Ramy will likely fall short conditioning wise.

Phil and Ramy just look more human (if that makes sense?). Round muscle bellies, etc. With Phil being at his best, he will never lose until Ramy unleashes his potential to then be the best. In all likelihood Phil will not lose this year or any year to anyone but Ramy when he comes fully equipped for battle. Everyone else can be fully equipped, but still lose.

Oh ok, I see what you're getting at Steve, you just don't like how Kai is genetically built. That's fair, everyone has their tastes. I for example never did like Ronnie Coleman. His structure always bugged me and so did his stomach...

Now that everybody agrees that Phil is bound to win this year, where do you think everyone else will fall? Who do you think will make it into the top 10? What placings do you think they will have? Does anyone think Branch will be able to maintain his top 10 spot? Heard there are a lot of newcomers this year.

-Primal

[steve_d]

Not really saying I don't like Kai - He has some freaky parts, and in some poses I like him better than anyone. However his flaws are not just minor flaws, it throws it off quite a bit, and a judge will be put off by it. It's tough to judge and usually the way its done is backwards - ie, you start eliminating people from the mix. Once its down to say phil and Kai, its easier to say kai doesn't win, then it is to say phil doesn't win. Many people love Kai, he's got a big fan base - and those people as cog mentions like freaks. Yes, people still like freaks, however those fans aren't the judges. The ifbb still has their own criteria, and that criteria isn't looking for mutants. Kai looks seriously like he's not from this planet. That can be a good thing, or a great thing depending who you are. If you're a judge, it's a good thing, but not a great thing - and it's the reason he's always in the mix but never on top.

Branch might maintain top 10, likely he will, but I don't think he deserves it. Unless he looks like he did at the arnold when he won. But I don't see him looking that good again. I'd like to see Dexter in the top 5. Wolf, rhoden and kai as well. Really, its anyone's game. Victor will probably be in the mix, and Ramy if he's lean should be in a top 6 position. It all comes down to who's lean. Once again, it looks like anyone's game from 2nd or 3rd all to way to 10th.

[Praetorian]

Yep much easier to do the elimination process and when anyone stands next to Phil your weak points become quite glaring. My top three picks in no particular order if they come in diced are Ramy, Phil, and Rhoden...all these guys are just plain gifted beyond gifted. Kai I would put fourth and Wolf fifth.

P

[Primal]

Not really saying I don't like Kai - He has some freaky parts, and in some poses I like him better than anyone. However his flaws are not just minor flaws, it throws it off quite a bit, and a judge will be put off by it. It's tough to judge and usually the way its done is backwards - ie, you start eliminating people from the mix. Once its down to say phil and Kai, its easier to say kai doesn't win, then it is to say phil doesn't win. Many people love Kai, he's got a big fan base - and those people as cog mentions like freaks. Yes, people still like freaks, however those fans aren't the judges. The ifbb still has their own criteria, and that criteria isn't looking for mutants. Kai looks seriously like he's not from this planet. That can be a good thing, or a great thing depending who you are. If you're a judge, it's a good thing, but not a great thing - and it's the reason he's always in the mix but never on top.

Branch might maintain top 10, likely he will, but I don't think he deserves it. Unless he looks like he did at the arnold when he won. But I don't see him looking that good again. I'd like to see Dexter in the top 5. Wolf, rhoden and kai as well. Really, its anyone's game. Victor will probably be in the mix, and Ramy if he's lean should be in a top 6 position. It all comes down to who's lean. Once again, it looks like anyone's game from 2nd or 3rd all to way to 10th.

Wow, really good breakdown of Kai! It's pretty cool hearing it from a judge standpoint.

Hmm, good picks Prae, I'd love to see Rhoden be in the top 3. I think he has an amazing physique! I'd love to see Ramy come in great condition, it'd be awesome to see how he would stand against Phil when they are both at their best!

-Primal

[cog]

[url]http://ca.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=ddc&hsimp=yhs-ddc-bd&p=Denis+ Wolf+and+Phil+ Heath&type=124_alt_ddc_dss_bd_com

Go through a few till you find the off stage group shot where Wolf has no tanning spray on.

[cog]

http://www.musculardevelopment.com/news/the-mcgough-report/13523-how-denis-wolf-beats-phil-heath-muscular-development.html#.VA_FXGctDKI

[Primal]

Whoops forgot about this thread for a bit! I don't personally see it cog, Phil has got Dennis Wolf beat (especially in the arms) in my opinion. Maybe my amateur eyes aren't seeing what you the potential for Wolf is but I just think that Phil has a better shape overall... Wolf to Kai though, I have to give it Wolf..

-Primal

[cog]

What bothers me about Phil is the apparent"primping"of some body parts,specifically delts.He has excellent shape and fullness but the grainy look eludes him.I'm still bummed out from the leniency Coleman got with his midsection,I don't care much for Phil getting a pass on this either.Are slightly lower lats worth more than a tight water free midsection?

[steve_d]

What bothers me about Phil is the apparent"primping"of some body parts,specifically delts.He has excellent shape and fullness but the grainy look eludes him.I'm still bummed out from the leniency Coleman got with his midsection,I don't care much for Phil getting a pass on this either.Are slightly lower lats worth more than a tight water free midsection?

I'll agree to this. I also think Phil can't really improve. In fact, I preferred his 2012 look over the 2013. Eventually he will start looking more noticeably 'worse' or someone else will just come in better. I'm not sure this is the year, but I don't see him taking 7-8 straight. I also think that the more we progress through time, the less likely we will have 8 time champs. We're all moving towards 'limits' in bodybuilding, and when that happens, we will have a line-up of 10 guys who are all equally impressive. Even the last couple years it seemed as though after first or 2nd it was anyones game right through to the top 10. Not as much seperating the top 3 to the top 10.

Sure, we will still have a huge variability in the types of physiques (structure), and that may sway some repeat winners (as is the case with Phil), but we are seeing less and less pure dominance on all 3 shape, size, and conditioning.

[Praetorian]

Yep much easier to do the elimination process and when anyone stands next to Phil your weak points become quite glaring. My top three picks in no particular order if they come in diced are Ramy, Phil, and Rhoden...all these guys are just plain gifted beyond gifted. Kai I would put fourth and Wolf fifth.

P

Looks pretty close except for Ramy who basically beat himself. Top 4 appear to be Phil, Kai, Rhoden, Wolf. Cant believe Ramy ...a professional, and he cant figure out how to get diced...seriously!!
P

[natenator]

Looks pretty close except for Ramy who basically beat himself. Top 4 appear to be Phil, Kai, Rhoden, Wolf. Cant believe Ramy ...a professional, and he cant figure out how to get diced...seriously!!
P

the sad part for most of these guys getting conditioned isn't really a problem. Their muscle mass to fat ratio makes coming in conditioned pretty much a non-factor. Where they struggle is with keeping their size and filling back out for show time. Ramy can afford to give up size to gain on conditioning but just doesn't seem to want to go there. There is only one true mass monster in the top 6 anymore and that's Kai so there is no need to try and "out size" someone. I'm not sure if the blame is with Ramy or with Denis - maybe both?

[Primal]

Looks pretty close except for Ramy who basically beat himself. Top 4 appear to be Phil, Kai, Rhoden, Wolf. Cant believe Ramy ...a professional, and he cant figure out how to get diced...seriously!!
P

Yeah Ramy wasn't cut up enough it looked... They were swapping him with Warren which is a big blow if you ask me. Really surprising they put Wolf in the second call out only to be swapped to the first. Wolf came in with good conditioning I thought, definitely had the grainiest look out of all of the competitors in my opinion. Rhoden looks on point as well (Yes!) and it will be interesting who will take the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spot because Phil is not gonna be beat...

What do you guys think about the heat between Kai and Phil? Bad enough at the conference but last night the judges were yelling at the two...

-Primal

[natenator]

Kai should have shoved Phil and told him to get the **** back to his area lol Everyone was pretty spread out except Kai and Phil and Kai couldn't move to make more room.

Hopefully tonight we'll see a brawl lol

[TT Eric]

Didn't saw the whole thing, just some portion and IMO Kai look better then usual, leaner and still big/full, if only he could cut his freaking liana. Phil seems to act like a childish assh@ole again. Wolf and Branch are looking better then I expected, also Ramy is freaking solid potential.

Eric

[Talo]

A fight on stage may just bring the O to the main stream - haha :)

[Primal]

Yeah it'll be interesting to see what unfurls between Kai and Phil tonight. Really pulling for Rhoden to take Wolf's spot but we'll see I guess.

-Primal

[Praetorian]

Final Mr Olympia Results, Men's Open

IIFBB Pro Men
1. Phil Heath
2. Kai Greene
3. Shawn Rhoden
4. Dennis Wolf
5. Dexter Jackson
6. Branch Warren
7. Mamdouh Elssbiay
8. Victor Martinez
9. Steve Kuclo
10. Juan Morel
11. Johnnie Jackson
12. Roelly Winklaar
13. Fred Smalls
14. Jonathan Delarosa
15. William Bonac
16. Ibrahim Fahim
16. JoJo Ntforo


P

[steve_d]

It's easy to be a bully to someone who reacts to it the way Kai does. For the most part I don't see Phil as being a total jerk. Yeah, he was perhaps a bit close to kai compared to the others in the line up, but I've been on the ends of bodybuilding line ups and you tend to just wander closer to the center. So I wouldn't put the blame on Phil at all for that. In fact it was kai that was trying to push Phil, not the other way around. Plus the hair flipping thing was just weird. Whether or not it is all a show is debatable. It's hard not to compare the relationship to the poor kid envious of the rich kid. Phil talking about losing his father, and Kai quick to point out that he had no father. A little of it is jealousy, some of it is disrespect to each other, some of it is just tension flying during a time where none of their brains are thinking clearly, and perhaps a lot of it just a show. The thing during pre-judging, to me, was just Kai being Kai - he was trying to be funny. Giving the fans a little bit of show. If you notice that he did this during the comparison round - NOT during the call out. Yes, they are still judging, but he knew they would be making their last decisions in the next call out.

Most would have Phil winning except those who dislike him and want to see Kai beating him. Phil is just better overall. That said, I was not impressed with Phil compared to years prior. He's only 34 years old and already showing signs that he isn't improving. Even Kai is 39 I beleive - and so is shawn rhoden. On paper Phil should still have everything going for him to continue his streak. but, I've said this before, but I think Phil's days are numbered. I am not sure if it will be Kai to dethrown him though. Who knows - I think Rhoden could have a title next year, before someone else like Big ramy decides to get diced. I don't see dennis wolf ever winning. Dexter won't either, he's mr. consistent but will never get big enough this late in his career. Branch is done, victor too. So really it could be phil vs. kai vs. rhoden for a couple more years. You never know with this sport though. Just look at how ronnie emerged. Maybe someone like roelly winklar could even jump into the mix. Perhaps phil will go back to the drawing board and fix some of the flaws he had this year. who knows.

I see next year as a repeat of this year. with big ramy coming 4th-5th and dexter making his way out of the top 5.

[cog]

I thought Ramy had a new coach that was going to guide Ramy to sure victory.

[Primal]

I'm pretty happy that I guessed the first 4 correctly! I was leaving the 5th spot open for Ramy or Victor to be honest but we all saw how Ramy came in... Oh well, word has it that Ramy had a hamstring injury right before the Olympia and his hamstring was practically all blue before the tan (unsure if true, just what I heard) but it still doesn't help his overall conditioning any. Gotta agreee with you Steve, Heath looks to me like he is slowly declining. Somebody posted pictures of him side by side from 2011, 2013 and this year. He was doing a front lat spread in all 3 shots and in 2011 he was able to flex his abs with the pose. His legs looked a bit smaller but his delts were much more round in the previous years. It looked like he actually sacrificed some delt size but gained some in the arm department. What did you guys think about his gut? It seemed like it was a bit loose this year but nothing to Roelly Winklar wow...

-Primal

[steve_d]

I know people have been talking about his gut, and posting pics of unrelaxed shots, etc. And yes, the pics would illustrate some weaknesses there. However, I don't think it's as drastically different from last year. That pic you saw of front lat spread 4 years in a row to me just showed he might have had a harder time keeping it controlled. As if he simply had a full belly. He's not engaging his abs as much in the shot, and it may or may not be because he could or could not. I've noticed shots of myself from morning to night that in the worst pose I would look like I went from tight and tiny to having a gut. I do think that it has been a natural progression towards the gut he had this year though - which for many bodybuilders is just the facts of life as you age. It was not as if he had it out of nowhere... He may be declining, but the key is that it is slow. Even if he can maintain for years, he'll be the guy to beat. I just don't see him improving anymore and its just a matter of time before someone overtakes him. He would be smart to try to maintain, rather than improve his size.

One thing I hate is when they show a rear back shot from the side angle and cirlce the bodybuilders gut. If you are doing the pose the way you're supposed to, almost everyone would show this as you are breathing in and out. Yeah, some are worse than others, but its not a flattering picture for anyone!

Roelly, yeah - he's got some good genetics, and some really bad ones. Even if he gets crazy lean he would have a hard time battling for those top spots.