Price of whey predicted to skyrocket :(

[Chaps]

Dante posted about this on intensemuscle.com and i trust him not to bullshit about this he forewarned everyone when the price originally went up a little. Well this time both pepsi and coke have bought up most of the worlds whey, 500 million pounds from pepsi alone! So protein prices are expected to double if not triple within the next year or so, looks like it's time to stock up guys. This really blows but hopefully their RTD products fail badly and prices drop back down although they will probably still be a little higher then normal :(.

[ubcpower]

meh, itll give me an excuse to buy whole foods and stop being lazy about relying on shakes

[tiramisu]

I ordered another 25 pounds this week.

[monkey]

well, this would turn it into one of the most expensive protein sources ...

[tiramisu]

I can always go back to old fashioned milk and eggs. I like isolate but if the market goes for a shit food is always an option.

[Aaron_37]

I can always go back to old fashioned milk and eggs. I like isolate but if the market goes for a shit food is always an option.

This.

[guest]

^^^yeah^^^

[Ritch]

I`ll believe it when I see it.

[JacktheThriller]

more whey in the mainstream is a good thing, production will increase, and then into everyday foods, hopefully for the better

[MMASTAR]

I just ordered 16 pounds, but that doesnt really last that long... excited to try the creamy PB flavour!!

[Chaps]

more whey in the mainstream is a good thing, production will increase, and then into everyday foods, hopefully for the better

Go over to intensemuscle and look at it, it's not a good thing, whey is buy product of milk and cheese manufacturing, they aren't going to step up the manufacturing of milk and cheese to make sure we bodybuilders have enough whey. And the prices of other proteins will follow suit, this isn't good at all.

[Chaps]

I`ll believe it when I see it.

Dante gave the heads up last time the price of protein went up, he's got no reason to make this shit up, he'll be short on supply himself, and he's supplies over 26 companies with protein.

[Ritch]

Dante gave the heads up last time the price of protein went up, he's got no reason to make this shit up, he'll be short on supply himself, and he's supplies over 26 companies with protein.

Even when he said that nobody was paying double for protein powders. It went up a little bit and didnt`last long.

[tiramisu]

Phsyique said the same thing a couple of weeks ago. If Poke and Cepsi inhale the world supply for bullshit drinks for 12 months then the small company's are going to feel the pinch very quickly.

The current market price for isolate makes it a good supplement. If it goes to 12-15$ a pound or higher it's just not worth the convenience any longer. At 10 and under I can justify it in my food budget.

At the end of the day it's a convenience that I can live without but it would take a lot more meal planning.

[Chaps]

Even when he said that nobody was paying double for protein powders. It went up a little bit and didnt`last long.

Yes and he said that was minor he said this is going to be huge, personally i'm going to stock up

[Ritch]

When I get the word from a company like True Supps then I`ll be a believer...

[Joe_Ripped]

^It's already gone up.. but so far about 20-25%... but that's on bulk whey ... gotta remember the costs of blending/flavouring/filling/packaging/shipping etc. aren't going up right now.. so if you're buying lets say a 5lb optimum, the price won't double on that just because whey doubled..

In a few weeks is when will really know what's going on..

[tiramisu]

What percentage (ish) of the underlying cost is processing vs. whey ingredient?

I would geuss the shipping/handling/flavouring/packaging easily being 50% of the manufactured cost but I don't really have a good idea of the whole flavouring thing.

[flapjack]

I just check True protein's site and whey Isolate cold-filtration has gone up $1/lb since I ordered my 25lbs last week.

[tiramisu]

TP moves a huge amount of product and is very high up in the food chain supplying almost 30 other company labels. I suspect inventory costs hit them most quickly but it should cascade through fairly quickly.

My understanding is that there are only really half a dozen big suppliers in the north american market. I'm guessing that TP is tier 2 in the supply chain providing value add through flavouring/packaging/labeling facilities plus a retail generic product.

Impact to price is an open question. Consumers are price sensitive. OR at least I am (maybe the rest aren't). Retailers may or may not choose to reduce % profit to maintain sales volume. It's a tough decision for the retailers.

This would make a nice little case study for some bored mba students.

... did a little more surfing the big players in wpi in NA seem to be

Davisco
Glanbia
Hilmar Cheese
Land O' Lakes
Leprino

In canada I'm guessing it's companies like saputo but it seems like whey protein is mostly from the u.s.

[Knuckles28]

It wont last long, i mean really who is going to buy a diet pepsi or coke with protien.. lol
Thanks for the heads up..

[monkey]

It wont last long, i mean really who is going to buy a diet pepsi or coke with protien.. lol
Thanks for the heads up..

Not sure if you are joking... but you realize that those two basically control maybe 80 percent or so of the entire beverage market?

[MuSuLPhReAk]

Pepsi is distributing Muscle Milk. I guess they saw the potential profit from the market and decided to jump in. I highly doubt they will be putting protein in a the pepsi on the market now. But expect to see a Muscle Milk like product that will be everywhere. I would think the price would be reasonable as the amount of protein they bought would have made it very cheap for 1 lbs.

What will happen to the protein supplement industry in general? Of course price has to go up but time will really tell the outcome. Does anyone have any hard fact documentation that pepsi bought 500 million lbs of protein? Maybe buy some pepsi stock? lol

[Talo]

I'm not too worried I can make 5lbs last 2 months.

[Ritch]

I'm not too worried I can make 5lbs last 2 months.

Lasts me a little over 2 weeks. So I am worried.

[natenator]

I'm not too worried I can make 5lbs last 2 months.
I only have 1 shake a day right now so it doesn't really matter to me what the price goes to.

Prefer whole foods anyway and there really are no supplement substitutes for whole foods. Just because it's easier doesn't mean it's better. Case in point squats, deadlifts, hard, heavy training. Its easier not to do this but we all know it's not the better approach.

[guest]

as we saw in another thread: protein is not needed anyway (http://www.canadabodybuilding.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18042)

[Big D]

i agree whole foods are much gooder, unfortunately for me i love shakes mainly because of the convenience.

[physique]

Dante posted about this on intensemuscle.com and i trust him not to bullshit about this he forewarned everyone when the price originally went up a little. Well this time both pepsi and coke have bought up most of the worlds whey, 500 million pounds from pepsi alone! So protein prices are expected to double if not triple within the next year or so, looks like it's time to stock up guys. This really blows but hopefully their RTD products fail badly and prices drop back down although they will probably still be a little higher then normal :(.

exactly what i posted a month ago in my section of the board.
its going to be shitty for smaller stores like me to compete against the bulk buyers. but what can ya do. thats how the world goes these days

[tiramisu]

exactly what i posted a month ago in my section of the board.
its going to be shitty for smaller stores like me to compete against the bulk buyers. but what can ya do. thats how the world goes these days

How big do you have to purchase to buy from producers like saputo?

[Mr.Freeze]

i don't get it, why is coke and pepsi buying so much whey protein? so if Pepsi are distributing MuscleMilk what is the point of buying Whey?

[guest]

i don't get it, why is coke and pepsi buying so much whey protein? so if Pepsi are distributing MuscleMilk what is the point of buying Whey?

?

[natenator]

i don't get it, why is coke and pepsi buying so much whey protein? so if Pepsi are distributing MuscleMilk what is the point of buying Whey?
Perhaps they'd like to create their own protein drink?

[MuSuLPhReAk]

How big do you have to purchase to buy from producers like saputo?

From what I heard, they don't sell their protein to the supplement industry. They use it for cakes and other products instead. Maybe they'll figure out there is money in the protein industry and produce a sports supplement line too. Hard to compete against that.

[Mr.Freeze]

never knew coke and pepsi were in the cake industry.

[Ritch]

never knew coke and pepsi were in the cake industry.

I think he was refering to Saputo... Having a rough day there Freeze?

[Mr.Freeze]

lolol that cuz im half a sleep so i think i should go to sleep.

[MuSuLPhReAk]

I'm guessing the Gatorade G-Series Recover 03 (Pepsi owns Gatorade for those that didn't know) is the product they are using the protein in.

20958


Not really for the hardcore bodybuilder though as it only has 8 grams of protein.

[Ritch]

8 grams of protein lol... Watchout!

[#8]

^^ lol

[guest]

what a waste of good protein.

[monkey]

:sexy
I'm guessing the Gatorade G-Series Recover 03 (Pepsi owns Gatorade for those that didn't know) is the product they are using the protein in.

20958


Not really for the hardcore bodybuilder though as it only has 8 grams of protein.

Yeah... but they are going to sell way more for a higher mark up...look at how mainstream "protein drinks and bars" have gone.
Once considered unnatural, unhealthy, extreme by the mass, it has become quite accepted to have a stupid protein bar..
This hasn't kicked in in Europe yet.. bit harder to find this stuff or a supp shop.. wait till this market opens up.. big cash and they know that

[sinbad]

Kind of stupid to have a little more protein than an egg. They should have at least bumped it up to 25g. Won't make a customer out of me for sure.

[hommes]

Dante posted about this on intensemuscle.com and i trust him not to bullshit about this he forewarned everyone when the price originally went up a little. Well this time both pepsi and coke have bought up most of the worlds whey, 500 million pounds from pepsi alone! So protein prices are expected to double if not triple within the next year or so, looks like it's time to stock up guys. This really blows but hopefully their RTD products fail badly and prices drop back down although they will probably still be a little higher then normal :(.

if that happens i'll be getting a team together, and jacking semi's and store fronts. i'll believe it when i see it first.

[hommes]

Lasts me a little over 2 weeks. So I am worried.

same here

[hommes]

8 pittily grams of protein, wow they are going all out on this new drink

[Canadian Protein.com]

Unfortunately, these rumors are partially true. There are players in the industry and ones that are getting into the industry and countries that are exploding with growth that are buying up very large amounts of whey and I'm sure all of you know what happens when supply goes down and demand goes up. Think about the whey and protein industry exactly like the fossil fuel industry.

Now, will whey increase to the price that it no longer makes sense to make it part of your diet...i doubt it. Will prices increase...yes and they already have.

[hommes]

if prices get out of hand i'm done with powders, and will go to eating more tuna and eggs.

[Ritch]

Unfortunately, these rumors are partially true. There are players in the industry and ones that are getting into the industry and countries that are exploding with growth that are buying up very large amounts of whey and I'm sure all of you know what happens when supply goes down and demand goes up. Think about the whey and protein industry exactly like the fossil fuel industry.

Now, will whey increase to the price that it no longer makes sense to make it part of your diet...i doubt it. Will prices increase...yes and they already have.

I just checked out your site and the price hasen`t gone up yet. If it does, any idea when and by how much? Say the whey blend as an example.

[Canadian Protein.com]

I just checked out your site and the price hasen`t gone up yet. If it does, any idea when and by how much? Say the whey blend as an example.

Our prices haven't gone up because we have a lot of stock left. However, it's hard to predict such a thing Ritch as we haven't seen the end of this situation yet. Only time will tell my friend. But, hopefully we can weather the storm for our customers...:D

[baza]

i agree whole foods are much gooder, unfortunately for me i love shakes mainly because of the convenience.

+1 I have 3 shakes a day.

Don't worry people, TrueSupplements will take a loss to keep customers happy! Hurray!

[Doggcrapp]

TP moves a huge amount of product and is very high up in the food chain supplying almost 30 other company labels. I suspect inventory costs hit them most quickly but it should cascade through fairly quickly.

My understanding is that there are only really half a dozen big suppliers in the north american market. I'm guessing that TP is tier 2 in the supply chain providing value add through flavouring/packaging/labeling facilities plus a retail generic product.

Impact to price is an open question. Consumers are price sensitive. OR at least I am (maybe the rest aren't). Retailers may or may not choose to reduce % profit to maintain sales volume. It's a tough decision for the retailers.

This would make a nice little case study for some bored mba students.

... did a little more surfing the big players in wpi in NA seem to be

Davisco
Glanbia
Hilmar Cheese
Land O' Lakes
Leprino

In canada I'm guessing it's companies like saputo but it seems like whey protein is mostly from the u.s.

I work with all those dairies or their direct packaging partners and many more other dairy's/companys.
But since you mentioned them...here is a direct quote from Leprino today "Leprino is sold out on protein thru balance of 2010."

Its May!


How big do you have to purchase to buy from producers like saputo?

I tell you, if i had it to do all over again.....and I think some other companys on this board will tell you the same. Protein powder is a really dumb business to get into.
a) Heavy = costs alot to ship it in and ship it out
b) Profit margin = very low
c) I have to write high 6 figure or 7 figure checks to various company's to get the prices per pound that I want. Buy one pallet? Good luck..LOL....youll end up buying protein for more per pound sometimes than a gigantic company like Optimum Nutrition sells theirs on a retail shelf for. Buy 32-64 pallets? Price per pound goes down dramatically.....and thats what Ive had to do.

Want to become an overnight millionaire in the supplement industry? Manufacture a capsule product that works (especially a fat burner)....and sell it for 29.95 to 69.95 like all these companys do when it only costs $3.25 per bottle to make and the actual ingredients cost less than the fancy looking bottle/multicolored label and plastic top.

Do you ever hear about Gaspari's protein powder? No because he became a multi millionaire on capsulized products and fat burners.
Lipo-6? The ads are in People magazine....do you know how much those full page ads cost? For reference Flex magazine is 9000 to 13000 per full page...so you can gather what Lipo-6 is paying to put full page ads in mainstream magazines and the huge profits they are making.

I custom manufacture dry powders and capsulized products for a great many retail company's. So I know firsthand the profit on a 2 and 5 pound jug of protein vs bottles of capsules

Capsulized products
a) so light....light to ship to and from you unlike protein
b) profit margin...yikes....you do the math...3 bucks to make....we sell the finished product to the retail/marketing company pretty darn cheap (lets say 6.00 to 7.50) ....they sell it for 30 to 70 bucks....huge 23 to 63 dollar profit per bottle.....each bottle is 60 to 120 capsules so when it runs out it always gets rebought....sell a paltry 100 thousand bottles and thats 4.3 million dollars profit thereabouts. Virtually every huge profit supplement company (outside of Optimum who has the market covered)....has some specialized non protien powder making them gobs of money (NO-explode, Nolvadex-xt, Vitargo, ALR's capsulized products, test boosters, pro-hormones, jacked-3, etc etc etc etc)

We always get people who are so excited to have us make 2 and 5 pound jugs of protien for them......and I always give them the same speech. "What is going to make yours different than the other 5000-10000 companys on the globe offering a protein powder allready? Research some farout compound that works incredibley well for people, put it in a capsule and market it correctly and you can become an instant millionaire overnight...if its worthy and it works and works well.....they will buy it"

[tiramisu]

There's great money in pixie dust the problem with it is you need to have a low ethical threshold and a desire to be P.T. Barnum. I wish I was more of a scum bag.

Thanks for the details. Although your business may not be as profitable as selling knock-off prohormones and fairie dust I'm sure it's a lot easier to be proud of.

[flapjack]

Well, I for one am very thankful for trueprotein.com. You guys have been awsome to deal with and hopefully this doesn't hurt you too badly.

I will continue to purchace from you even if prices get stupid.

[Doggcrapp]

This is from Bruce, VP at Gaspari Nutrition:

"Guys,

I am pretty well plugged into the global commodities market for dietary supplements and sports nutrition. Even folks who might not care too much for me will tell you that I am "juiced in" pretty deep in Asia as well as with the protein vendors in NZ, Australia, etc.

There is a very big whey protein shortage brewing that will probably see the price of most protein supps (especially lower end stuff made from WPC 80 and caseinates) get really pricey in the next couple of months and soar through the winter. I am not sure how this will effect bigger companies that have contracts locked in for MT amounts per month but the smaller (and in many cases, the stupider) companies that spot buy WPC/caseinates are going to be pushed out of business. Ultimately, your choice as a consumer is going to be limited I would imagine unless you're just in it to buy REALLY high end stuff. Anyone who knows anything can tell you the price of WPC 80 and the caseinates went up about 30% since the start of the year. Yesterday I got a notice that for as of June 1st, a protein I buy for Gaspari is going up another 11%.

So what's going on? Two things.

First, the Chinese are buying up a motherload of the lower end whey for their own domestic market to make baby formula and "liquid food supplements" for sick people. With a bigger middle class, Chinese can now afford not to breast feed and they are buying baby formula at a monster rate. Since the melamine "issue" most Chinese who can afford to choose not to buy their own domestic whey - but they are gobbling up a ton of the stuff from India, Australia and New Zealand.

Second, two of the large soda companies (need I mention who?) are rumored to be coming out with their own RTD's that are WPC 37 and 80 based. The rumor is that between the two of them, they cornered much of the spot market buy buying HALF A BILLION KILOGRAMS of whey proteins of all sorts. That is an incomprehensible amount.

So what I have seen in the last few month is a large run on WPC's and caseinates and since the price of these up shifting upwards, I am seeing people who would not normally buy isolates go after them because the price differences between a lower end isolate and a medium concentrate or caseinate is becoming non-existent. And an isolate has a better margin/premium which allows for more profit/ability to discount than a concentrate where the mark up is (and I am not BS'ing you guys here) at best 30%-40% over cost. At some point it will become economically unviable for many smaller companies to put out WPC/caseinate products because they will not be able to make any money at all on it.



The larger protein companies should not be affected for another 6-9 months until their current supply contracts come up for renewal. You pay a little premium to "lock in" a price for 90-180 days and many times it turns out not to be needed this "protein insurance policy."

This time, those of us who were smart enough to play the "options game" with protein will be in good shape - these are the bigger companies. Most smaller companies can't buy 10 MT of protein at a whack (the minimum needed to lock in a contract typically). They are going to get bent over.

In the end, you will still be able to buy whey protein. You might see a huge increase in the price and "discounts end." Or you might see a sudden burst of isolate and hydrolysates on the market and concentrates/caseinates become scarce (with the excuse that companies want to sell a "better protein" which is indeed true - but not the real reason).

My sources tell me that they think the big beverage companies making RTD's are really overestimating the market for products like this (I think they have too) and are going to be stuck with a ton of expensive finished stuff nobody wants because it will be loaded with a ton of carbs to make it taste good for the masses.

Regardless, expect the remainder of 2010 and most of 2011 to be a bad stretch for people looking to purchase finished products that contain whey protein concentrate and caseinates for the most part (there will be exceptions of course - those of us who have contracts are good for at least another 90-180 on price).

Because of this, I am no longer giving out free samples of Intrapro or any other protein based product Gaspari Nutrition makes (Real Mass, Myofusion or Intrapro - I will still give out SizeOn samples because this uses a high end, expensive WPH that is pretty much predigested into di-tri peptides and not affected by the market spike in the price of other proteins).

If it were me and I liked a smaller companies cheap-o protein I would get it now while you can.

Good luck folks,


BK"

[Canadian Protein.com]

+1 I have 3 shakes a day.

Don't worry people, TrueSupplements will take a loss to keep customers happy! Hurray!

lol

[juced_porkchop]

aslong at the Lipotropic Protein from lg stays about the same i dont care. :-P

[MMASTAR]

I love true protein and am going to order a shitload right now.

[Victor85]

Price going up!? That sucks! I guess I got to start shoplifting the Superstore brand name Whey Protein.(JK!) ;)

[MuSuLPhReAk]

So it's been over a month now. Any changes noticed on overall protein prices? I haven't noticed anything significant as of yet.

[Andre]

No price changes at all... if anything, i have seen some suppliers bring prices down!!! I am expecting a pallet of whey in the next couple of days that will be selling for $100 for 15lbs the same it's been for the past 6+ months...

[Canadian Protein.com]

So it's been over a month now. Any changes noticed on overall protein prices? I haven't noticed anything significant as of yet.

Yes, raw material has gone up. Not ridiculous amounts, but it has increased!

[Ritch]

Yes, raw material has gone up. Not ridiculous amounts, but it has increased!

But nothing like Dante was saying...

[natenator]

But nothing like Dante was saying...
for now.

[MuSuLPhReAk]

It was predicted when current stock ran out and contracts would be renewed, it would be a significant spike. We'll use this thread to watch the pricing and when it starts to move up steadily, we can all stock up ;)

[physique]

It was predicted when current stock ran out and contracts would be renewed, it would be a significant spike. We'll use this thread to watch the pricing and when it starts to move up steadily, we can all stock up ;)

you are exactly right MP. if the companies contract goes for another couple years then u wont see a change in their prices. Gaspari comes to mind here.
but companies like pvl, interactive, 4everfit, ON, and countless others u will see go up very soon.

[Student12]

My gf writes for a top bodybuilding site so we get a huge discount on supplements... FREE monthly orders! Has anyone thought of ordering the raw materials themselves and tinkering around with some malto-dextrin and making something kinda nasty tasting but not to bad?

[Blue Hefner]

Gaspari is raising the price on 5 pound Myofusion come August 4th.

[IronMan]

Any more updates on price increases? Dante, True Protein?

[NACanada]

It's coming...my guess is you'll see about a 3$ to $5 price increase depending on size...unless some companies absorb the extra cost (which i don't see happening)

PH

[IronMan]

Oh I know its coming. From what I'm hearing from my suppliers, they are talking about a good increase in wholesale pricing. But I'm wanting to know from the big buyers in the industry, in regards to raw powder costs on cheap WPC's vs Isolates, as the price increase won't be the same for all types of proteins from what I've heard.

[physique]

only company i heard of absorbing the cost for a while is allmax.
gaspari prices from true north (the distributor) go up Nov. 1st

[ironwill]

When I get the word from a company like True Supps then I`ll be a believer...

LOL, you dont get to much bigger than trueprotein......lolol.....:D
Id be believing Dante if i were going to make a bet...

[Blue Hefner]

Dymatize and ISS are increasing pricing on the proteins and Oh Yeah Bars come September.